Welcome to PMP page.
This prediction is presented by National Agricultural
Research Center (NARC) , National Agricultural
Research Center for Kyushu Okinawa Region (KONARC) of National Agriculture and Food
Research Organization (NARO) and former Japan Atomic Energy Research
Institute, currently Japan Atomic Energy Agency.
Planthoppers are tiny insects (4 mm) that suck the plant
fluid from the stems of rice plants. Since they lay eggs in the stems and
multiply rapidly, sometimes they cause serious damage to the rice plants. They
migrate over the sea from
We present a real-time prediction of planthopper
migration every day, which provides information on when and where the
planthoppers will come.
Latest Migration Prediction
Takeoff at dusk today
Amination
Takeoff at dawn today
Animation
The prediction domain is located in eastern
Asia extending from south
Migration
prediction for this year started on 1 May. Analytical results for migrations in late June and
begining of July 2005 are presented below.
Past
Predictions
The links below present past predictions.
Wind predictions are in the format of BARByyyymmdd.pdf. Sea level
pressures are in the format of PMSLyyyymmdd.pdf. Files of migration(10_)yyyymmdd.pdf
and migration2(or 21_)yyyymmdd.pdf are migrations which started at 10
UTC or 21 UTC, respectively. Files of migration(2)(or 10_, 21_)siten_yyyymmdd.pdf
are migrations from the takeoff are n. Locations of the takeoff areas are
shown in the "Takeoff areas" link.
Methods
The planthoppers fly over the
Secondly, temporal positions of migrating
planthoppers in the forecasted wind fields are calculated with a Lagrangian
dispersion model, GEARN, which was modified for the planthopper
migration study by JAEA. GEARN was originaly developed for the dispersion study
of radioactive paticles released accidentally. Planthoppers take off at dusk or
dawn, therefore, two simulations with different takeoff times, 10 and 21UTC,
are conducted per day. Takeoff areas were set
based on both a paddy field map and light trap locations in
An evaluation in 2003 season showed that the hitting ratio was 74%, which was
almost the same as one in rain fall forecast of day after tomorrow by JMA.
Research
Team
The
project team consisits of the following scientists: Akira Otuka, Tomonari
Watanabe, Yoshito Suzuki, Masaya Matsumura (NARO), Akiko Furuno and Masamichi
Chino (JAEA).
Collaboration
We've
had great helps from MPG/MMM/NCAR scientists. Especially, Dr. Jimy Dudhia
supported the project as our host of the visiting scientist program.
Supports
This
project is supported by General Food Policy Bureau of Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries.
Contacts
Akira Otuka (NARC) / Akiko Furuno(JAEA)